Equities Beating Bonds, Commodities,Gold In 2013 Like 2012

Commodities were a bummer over all, down 1.14% according to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. You had to know which individual commodities to go long and avoid the ones that performed especially badly. You can’t buy the commodity indexes. You should have been in soybean meal, up 49%, or unleaded gasoline, up 25.6%, or soybeans themselves, which gained 23.85%. The biggest collapses were in coffee, down 41.6%, natural gas, off 30.7% and orange juice, down 26.7%. Look for gold to follow the dollar, the success or failure of length of QE4, where enthusiasm appears to be lacking– even though the newsletters coming in over the web transom are starting to appear again advising on a new take off for the precious metal.

The major speculative move s last year, according to The Economist, were for hedge funds– not the public. Greek and Portuguese bonds up 80%, Turkish and Nigerian equities up a resounding 60% Shunned altogether were Japanese equities,British and German bonds just nosing out U.S. bonds.

A continued bet on a REIT index assumes the value of commercial real estate will continue to gain in value in a low interest rate climate. That’s probably a safe bet, but not anywhere near as spectacular as the triple from the low point in 2008. The Vanguard REIT Index, VGSIX, gained 17.53% in 2012, only 5.94% for the 5 years ending 12/31– and 10.74% since inception.


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